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What are Profits, What are Losses?

September 29, 2017

 

Profits & losses are very simplistic terms, but hard to understand & fathom. They are chasing mankind from time immemorial. People run after them like mad or run away from them like crazy. No one has understood them very clearly. Though my understanding might be blurred, but through this article I attempt to make an effort to put forth my point of view. Likewise I solicit your comments & suggestions on what you think are profits & losses.

In the board game of lucky 7, it’s either up (no.s beyond 7) or down (no.s below 7) that you need to bet on before throwing the dice. The probability of 7 coming, is very low. Similarly in business either you will have a profit or a loss that is either a up or down and there is hardly a middle thing. Logically profits are a result of our excess income / revenues over expenses and losses just the reverse. Profits are attributed to hard work and losses may be bad luck, policy reversals, market conditions etc. It could probably be justifiable in saying, there is one simple reason to profit and many excuses / justifications for the losses.

Above all profits are reasons to celebrate & cheer and losses lead to withdrawl & depression, may be. Profits lift our adrenalin but losses deplete our serotonin. So why does this happen? Everything is not logic & critical thinking, there is a shade of grey between black & white. What is that? It’s the middle of the road approach. Neither profits neither losses are a permanent feature. They both don’t stick, around for very long. Why, is a big question that has no clear or straight answers. But like change is inevitable, so are profits & losses. It’s not possible that corporations move like a straight line in normal course of business following standard accounting practices. Corporations that performed like a straight upward line had to move their regulators and disclose the truth, correct their past earnings disclosures. Reported examples are a dozen like Satyam, Enron, Worldcom etc and unreported, God knows.

So what’s the solution, celebrate losses and be calm in profits. Why celebrate? Profits are just a favourable number nothing more. Do they teach you anything? No. Does it ensure that what you keep doing the same thing year on year, you will have profits? No. So why to celebrate, when you know the celebration is going to be temporary! Losses on the other hand teach you a lesson. Losses give you the room to maneuver your strategy, redraw things, refocus, relook at people – processes – systems. Logically losses help you reduce your tax burden too. Moreover losses that result from factors outside the control of the corporation, result in a lesser frustration than the ones that occur due to the promoter’s incompetence. Why, because it’s easier to blame others than to pin the blame on us. It’s their fault, what could we do, is the normal rhetoric.

Have a distinct look at losses too. Consider losses to be a way of redistribution of wealth. You always wanted to be a Tata, Ambani , Gates, Birla, Buffett etc. But do you realize how much they give away for charity? Never, because we always look at their revenues and not their expenses! So when in losses consider yourself to be one of the above in terms of giving away. Thereafter refocus, re-plan, re-strategise, relook etc. to get back to the league that you truly belong to. In a nut shell there is nothing permanent. Be prepared for everything, as we live in a world wherein a young man dictates his nukes and an old man grumbles his way towards waywardness!

Who will profit, who will suffer losses, no one knows as it’s probably a zero sum game.

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3D Printing getting traction in Schools – Part 1

July 21, 2017

It’s always invigorating to meet schools leaders as it brings out a fresh thinking in us at I Print My Things and of course takes us back personally to our schools days! Earlier this week, it was amazing to meet Mrs. Anupama Chopra Principal GD Goenka Karkardooma and Principal of GD Goenka Rohini, Mrs. Ragini Kaul. Both these are new K-12 schools of about 1200 students, but above all great school leaders. Both these, Principals had an aura to them, their approach to their schools was unique and it was a joy to spend time with them. Avikshit Saras was in these schools in his capacity as a 3D printing trainer, conducting a demo class for the students. The students were very much aware of 3D printing and their hunger for knowledge was quite apparent. There were numerous questions and excitement was palpable.

One of the teachers Ms. Jaya who was also an academic coordinator had an amazing knowledge on technology. A self learner and knowledge seeker, she knew about a very specialized dental application (Invisalign) of 3D printing that we had heard some months ago! We are in times wherein there is a lot of knowledge that’s available with us, we need to reach out to it, decode it and immerse in it. So in essence like Jaya, one has to be a self learner & seeker. The role of a teacher is fast changing and they are becoming facilitators or mentors. No longer we need to go to a Guru for knowledge as the latter is freely available, but go to a Guru to get the right direction. During my presentation there was a slide on the fourth industrial revolution, how future technologies are going to impact students careers and how important it is for them to understand these technologies. To this Mrs. Kaul added that making students future ready is not just the responsibility of the school, but parents need to promote these technologies as well.

Further interaction with Principal Kaul revealed how parents want their child to be good in academics, good in sports, good in dancing, music etc. There is so much expectation from the child, it’s just mind boggling and confusing for the child. Many schools leader agree that sports, dance & music are quite helpful in reducing stress among students. In modern times design has come to the fore front and at the school level, which earlier was the sole prerogative of tertiary education. So we have institutions of repute like NID, NIFT etc which one can go to after school only. That could be a reason why CBSE few years ago chose to delete design from their curriculum. But inculcating design in the curriculum increases a student’s creativity & imagination, makes her a thinker and a person who starts asking out of the box questions. So when we at I Print My Things go to say Pathways, DPSi, etc in these IB schools design is very much a part of their curriculum. 3D printers and 3D printing training fit in very well and get that progression.

IB schools may look & sound fancy places, but their teaching has become more relevant to changing modern times. The CBSE curriculum should be upgraded, they could have an Indian IB system, so schools can opt for the same, fee structure can be lowered and foreign exchange can be saved that goes out towards remittances for the IB fees. 3D printing does gives schools an edge to schools and takes their students far ahead than just say robotics. How this happens, we will discuss in our next blog!

Wealth Creators Club 2017

July 13, 2017

 

Wealth Creators Club 2017 (1st half)

January 17’

Dear Members,

It was a pleasure seeing you all at the 1st WCC meeting of this year. The IIC Annex was a welcome change in the venue, though rest of the meetings will be conducted at main IIC only. I bring to you the proceedings:

 

  1. Varun Sir’s Update – Sir mentioned that earning should increase by 15% pa and showed by illustration what was happening in the last 10 – 15 years. Manoj Jain ji will circulate the excel life that Varun Sir made that evening. He suggested to us to see if there is an increase by more than 15% in earning for 5 continuous years. NPA adjustments by banks could also boost earnings. On the growth side for the next years 5 years, a prominent statistical organisation has predicted that the targeted 8% figure will nowhere be insight. He can’t say if India will move to a fully digital economy, but if it does it will be highly beneficial. Coming of Trump is good for India as it could lead to a reverse brain drain. Pressure of performance of IT companies to say generate revenues by offering solutions to Indian consumers will further add to our growth. Varun emphasised that Modi Govt.’s creates unnecessary discomfort / uncertainty by creating news such as taxing long term capital gains in equity or increasing STT. These could well be avoided and their simultaneous implementation will be detrimental.
  2. Ravi Kapoor ji’s Investment Myths – Ravi ji mentioned some very useful & realistic myths that surround us. He mentioned that stating equity is for the young and debt for the old is misleading. For all age brackets as long as you do not require money immediately, majority of your expenses are met etc just park that surplus money in equity. Putting your money directly into equity vs. mutual funds is also a challenge and only if one is comfortable doing the former one should do. Parking funds in dividend yielding funds and loosing out on growth ones is a myth and people succumb for the former. Amcs’ dole out money as dividends from their corpus and not actually when they receive the same from their investments. It’s best to take growth MFs’ only and take a STP say after an year. The returns will be also higher this way. There are more enlightening myths and I request Ravi ji to kindly elaborate the same by email to us.
  3. Praveen Sir’s Technical Study – Sir started with the basics of technical study and offered to continue the same over the next session as well. He mentioned that technicals is a map of the market or a stock. Prices move in a trend, the idea is to see the trend till it doesn’t reverse. He explained peak & trough progression through graphs. There are 3 trends and the primary trend could last 1- 3 years, There are 5 waves which typically comprise of 3 ups & 2 downs. One should just avoid the minor waves. Bull markets he said are of longer duration than bear markets. One should see the volumes vs. prices and that markets have a repetitive behavior pattern. Also one should see the OHLC charts for the last 10-12 years. To gain further insight into this I suggest members who missed the last session to positively attend the next meeting.
  4. Aseem Sir WCC Accounts – Sir did a physical count of people present & paid. It is once again requested that all members should kindly pay their fees on time.
  5. Manish Jain on 1st2 classes of Varun Sir EIFS – Manish ji took us back to Varun Sir’s 2nd class and very eloquently explained to members the procedure of arriving at various calculations such as retirement planning, large investment planning etc. He shall be sharing the excel file that he showed us that day.

For the sake of repetition it is submitted that, ‘views, ideas, opinions etc submitted by members, speakers, guests etc are to vetted, analysed, confirmed etc prior to making any investment decisions. The agenda for the next meeting to be held on 19th February 2017 in main IIC Seminar Halls at 5.55 pm is:

  1. Varun Sir’ Update
  2. Rajiv Mehta ji – Micro Cap investing
  3. Harsh Vardhan – How to make money?
  4. Ravi Kapoor – MF Strategies
  5. Manish Jain – 1st Class of EIFS

I look forward to seeing you all & learning from you all. Till then stay blessed and invested.

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February 17’

Dear WCC Members,

It was a pleasure to see you all in the February meeting. Our no. is growing and so is the interest. Varun Sir could not make it due to prior commitments. However we had two very interesting sessions. I bring to you the update:

 

  1. Mutual Funds Strategies: Ravi Kapur – In great detail Ravi ji explained his style & strategy for investing in mutual funds. He explained the difference between index funds and ETFs’ too. He showed how simple it is to use the portal of value research to arrive at fund selection by looking at key parameters such as return, expense ratio, etc. In addition one should look at the consistency of the fund manager, 5-4 star rating of funds and AUM should be more than 200 – 300 cr. One should review a fund if there are any changes to these. The dividend pay out adds 1.25 – 1.5% to the NAV. There is a clear 1% difference in return in regular & direct plans. The star rating of a fund is on the basis of last 3-5 year returns and volatility of the fund. In his words it is best to invest in a maximum of 3 funds in a multi cap option preferably. A multi cap fund gets the benefit of all 3 categories ie large, mid & small caps. So the returns & risk are all well taken care of, vis a vis if you get stuck with just one category as aforementioned. Ravi ji mentioned his own funds that he has invested in: Quantum Long Term Equity; Franklin Templeton Prima Plus & ICICI Value Discovery.

 

  1. Micro Cap investing: Rajiv Mehta – The slides have already been circulated, which are very detailed and informative. Just to add a few nuggets Mr. Mehta said a micro cap is a co., with a market cap. of below 500 crores. One should be a contrarian investor with due diligence. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala retains his investments for at least 9 years. One should see a company’s progress not just the share value. If there is a profit do not sell, but if it falls below 30% of your price entry point sell it. For clarifications and better understanding as a shareholder you can write to the Company Secretary of a Company and  they are bound to reply. If they don’t you can file a complaint to SEBI. In micro shares investing one can start small and await for x+ results.

    It goes without saying, we did have a intense inputs from these gentlemen. However all views expressed by them are their personal and as ever members are requested to exercise their own judgement, caution, knowledge etc before investing. The agenda for the next meeting which shall be held on the 19th of March 2017 at 5.55 pm in IIC is as follows:

  2. Harsh Verma : How to make money
  3. Manish Jain : Class 1 of EIFS
  4. Varinder Bhutani: Investment Experience sharing
  5. Rajiv Mehta: Micro Caps

I look forward to seeing you all soon. Wishing you all happy holi in advance.

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March 17’

Dear Members,

It was a pleasure to seeing you at the 3rd WCC Meeting of this year. I bring to you the proceedings of the WCC meeting held earlier this month.

  1. Praveen Sir – Sir explained about technicals’ & health. In the latter he explained how dietary & life style changes helped him to avoid a By Pass surgery. In investments, he explained the graph date wise of bank nifty. How it has progressed so far and one should invest in it. One should not consider a Rs.10 stock as cheap or a Rs.1000 stock expensive. It is a misnomer and the expensiveness or cheapness should be checked with a host of parameters before making an investment decision. Right now there is no euphoria or scramble in the market. But one should certainly wait for a patient correction. Praveen sir suggested looking at Blue Dart & CNX IT as investment options.
  2. Harsh Verma – Mr. Verma started by showing his motivational clip. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZ01r1e-CJwHe shall be sharing his ppt. slides shown to us. He stressed on tracking what the big money is doing, belief in one’s working and the need of having an investment plan.
  3. Tariq Sir mentioned a few of his compositions for members, which I request him to kindly post them on the WhatsApp group or Google Groups.
  4. Rajiv Mehta – Like last time, Mr. Mehta’s presentation was very enlightening & motivating. He explained the importance of Asset Reconstruction Co.s, the significance of U shaped and V shaped recoveries. He suggested having a look at comand morning star websites for parameters that one could use while valuing companies, making investment related decisions etc. Stock price related to liquidating value, retained earnings, return on assets etc. are a few parameters that one could look at. It’s important to look at the hurdle rate (opportunity cost) and paying one’s own self when running a business. Mr. Mehta explained the importance of getting out of a wrong investment once it hits our stop loss figure. Pyramiding is a concept in which when we are in profits we increase our investment it and subsequently up our stop loss too as the profits rise. The bottom line being to get out once the down trend starts, our stop has been hit and we have made the desired profit. Mr. Mehta will be sharing his ppt. slides.

Please exercise care & caution whenever you make an investment decision. Your WCC subscription is due for the upcoming meetings. Kindly remit / transfer the same. Details have been sent on the WhatsApp group. The next meeting will be held at IIC on 19th April 2017 at 5.55 pm. The agenda will be as follows:

  1. Pravin Mehta – Technicals cont.
  2. Manish Jain : Class 1 of EIFS
  3. Varinder Bhutani: Investment Experience sharing
  4. Rajiv Mehta: Micro Caps cont.

I look forward to seeing you.

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April 17’

Dear Members,

I trust all is well at your end. Please find the minutes of our last meeting.

  1. Technical Analysis – Pravin Sir in great detail explained the technical analysis with the help of charts, graphs & power point. He stressed we should stick to the basics when making money in the stock market. Price & volumes are a key criteria when seeing a stock. Look more at the strengths than the weaknesses. Breach of ascending trend line is a resistance and a descending trend line a support. Trend lines in a weekly chart should have atleast 3 points. The trend lines with a 20 – 40 degrees angle are reliable. A log scale is more logical than an arithmetic scale of say 1-2-4-8-16. A 3 day moving average line is no different than the price line itself. Use simple moving averages rather than exponential or weighted moving averages. There could be more than 5 waves, say 7 or 9 even and nothing is fixed. One should put trailing stop loss and keep changing it once the price rises. One shouldn’t fear if the stop losses get triggered and may be 2 out of say your 3 trades be at a loss, but that just 1 trade when executed properly has the potential to wipe out losses of those 2 trades too. It was observed that members were keen to take tips rather than understand the logic & approach while investing.
  2. Micro Cap investing. – Rajiv Sir reiterated the initial part of his presentation. The same has been already shared. He stressed on a critical point that return of your capital employed is more important than just return on your capital. This statement sums all our talk, strategies, ideas etc till now and Warren Buffet’s 1st principle that protect your capital. Before investing one should check the market value vs. the book value. Pyramiding should be  done once the price increases by 20% and we should put a trailing stop loss. A stock previously bought, which now has gone down in an up market, if we buy it more to lower our acquisition cost, this stock has a greater probability of going down further if the market goes down. However by pyramiding you are relatively safer as you are riding an uptrend with a trailing stop loss.

 

Our next meeting is on 21st May at 5.55 pm in IIC. Please confirm the same when Aseem Sir circulates the google doc. This will be special 2nd Anniversary Meeting of ours, as your WCC is now 2 years old. Do please come, contribute & learn. Knowledge when spread is more useful for society than when solely it’s bought at a seminar, university, school etc. Thanks for your patience, these minutes should have been sent much earlier.

 

Looking forward to seeing you,

Avikshit Saras

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May 17’

Dear Members,

It was a pleasure to see a full house last Sunday. We actually had to add more chairs for late comers such as myself! Keep it up WCC. I bring to you the proceedings of last meeting:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update- Varun Sir due to a last minute engagement could not come but assured a few of us that he will certainly come in the next meeting.
  2. Personal Pitch- “In 2 mins each member tells us about their background, work, pitches for any marketing / business development required, can pitch for personal help like career counselling for children or any other assistance sought and finally answers any queries posed. Max. time allowed 2 mins. one on one discussions can be had later.” This was circulated in the agenda last time, however members were not prepared for this and can prepare themselves and come in the next meeting with a pitch like the one I presented. This exercise is based on BNI’s apporach and the participation from members is purely on a voluntary bssis. “Hi I am Avikshit Saras and I am into 3D printing which entails setting up of 3D printing labs in educational institutions primarily and training people in 3D printing. I am also into Investment Advisory where we deal in financial instruments & real estate. I look for soliciting business in these 2 domains and if you or some one you know is interested please connect with me.”
  3. Praveen Sharma- Sir once again gave an amazing presentation on technicals to us. His style and conviction always mesmerizes many. Praveen Sir will share the slides / ppt. with us through email.
  4. Amarjit S. Narang & Vinod Bhutani: Personal Investment Experience Sharing- Amarjit Sir explained his roller coaster ride in stock market investment but never the less has continued to be a part of the same. He invested on tips and lost money. His best advice was to get 30% approx. return and exit that investment. Investment in MFs was something suggested by him too. Vinod Bhutani Sir explained that most of his investments were in real estate since he is in that business. However he will be sharing his 2 excel sheets formats, where in he tracks all his investments. The best part is that he explained that these excel sheets have the investment parameters we learnt from Varun Sir!
  5. Rajiv Mehta: Behavourial Finance- With each month passing Rajiv Sir increases the benchmark for his own presentations! This time it was just amazing with brilliant slides on the topic of Behavourial Finance. He shall share the same, however he mentioned that right now GDP to Market CAP ratio has risen to 0.9 or simply 90%. There are huge inflows into the mutual fund industry, but the average SIP is just Rs.3,800. For a person wanting to hold money in the stock market for 20 years, entering at current levels of 9500 is also fine. Rajiv Sir clarified a vital point of a member who mentioned that he had bought DLF at Rs.1100 some years ago and has still kept with him due to the erosion in its value. Rajiv Sir commented, DLF when it would have reached 1300 or above the investor would have sold, then why didn’t the investor sell it when it went down to say 900? One should put a stop loss and move out of such wrong investments so that one can select other profitable stocks. So he suggested a stop loss at say 30-40% is ideal and do pyramiding once the stock goes up by 30-40% of its intial purchase price. Rajiv Sir mentioned that markets may remain irrational for long but we need to remain solvent for ever. He mentioned that price is a very important aspect in stock market – “Bhav bhagwan hai”. Standard deviation (of say 19%) where mentioned means, that the return could deviate up or down by 19% of a say Rs.100 portfolio. Someone aiming for a 12% long term return from the stock market is the best expectation that one could have.

I hereby welcome once again the new members to our group and many thanks to them for joining in. Just as a reminder to all please note that discussions, opinions, suggestions etc made by speakers, presenters, audience etc at WCC meetings are their own only (personal in nature) and you are advised to exercise your own judgement, insight etc before making any financial / investment decision.

 

We look forward to seeing each other next month on the 18th of June 2017 at 5.55pm at IIC for our next WCC Meeting. The agenda for the meeting is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s update
  2. Vishwanath Rolla – Warren Buffet’s 2017 Letter to Shareholders
  3. Manish Jain – 1st class of EIFS
  4. Sushant – Book Review: Elements of Investing –  (pending confirmation)
  5. Rajiv Mehta – Nifty Basket
  6. Each One Tells Us

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June 17’

Dear Member,

It was a pleasure seeing you for the 2nd Anniversary Meeting of your Wealth Creators Club. For those present it was a memorable time as we had Varun Sir with us after a long hiatus. There was dual celebration for us, as it was Renu Ji’s birthday too that day. The proceedings of the meeting are as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s update – Sir mentioned that markets are not expensive at this time as earnings will increase which currently they are not. It won’t be a surprise if the sensex doubles in 3 years. Right now the market cap to GDP ratio is 90%. The sentiment is weak but we are in a huge revolution. Monetisation is done & GST for instance is uncertain: for the common man, for jobs, youth etc. The investment strategy right now is to invest 50% and hold 50% cash. Sir mentioned you could include technology too in your investment portfolio that could be Nifty 40% and the rest all 15% – IT, Energy, Banking, Infra. On Pharma sector he was apprehensive as there were no economic moat, govt. controls on price, huge fleecing of the patients etc. New money is certainly chasing stocks as investment in other avenues is down be it say gold, property etc. That’s the reason why the RBI Governor is not reducing the interest rates. Increase in US interest rates is good for us and the world as it gives a positive signal about growth. Varun Sir mentioned that P/B ratio is not so good an indicator for individual stocks as it does not capture all the aspects. Intrinsic value of a company is a new introduction in the EIFS course by Varun Sir. Varun Sir stated that Nifty Bees’s expense ratio has dropped down to 0.10% and the dividend, bonus shares etc are being added to the NAV. Hence the NAV has gone up than the level of the Nifty is being traded on.
  2. Vishwanath Rolla – Warren Buffet’s 2017 Letter to Shareholders. Sir will share the slides.
  3. Sushant – Book Review: Elements of Investing by Melkel & Ellis- Suggested to all reading this small book that talks about the 5 principles of investing.
  4. Rajiv Mehta – Nifty Basket & Covered call – Sir will share the slides and continue his presentation in the next class.

The next WCC meeting will be held on 23rd July 2017 at 5.55pm at IIC and the agenda will be as follows:

  1. Praveen Sharma – Lessons from life
  2. Rajiv Mehta – Covered calls
  3. Harsh Verma – Trend Analysis
  4. Each one tell us

I look forward to seeing you later this month

Wealth Creators Club 2016 cont.

July 13, 2017

Wealth Creators Club 2016 (2nd half)

July 16’

Dear Members,

It was great seeing you all in the last meeting. I bring to you the proceedings.

  1. 16 Ben Graham by Mr. Nimai Vijay – Very eloquently Nimai Sir presented to us the Chapter 16 of Ben Graham. It was appreciated by all. He will share his slides to all members.
  2. Aditya Birla MF sponsored talk – With great efforts of Chandresh Sir this talk was arranged. We are thankful to him and the Aditya Birla Team for the same. The slides have already been circulated containing their rationale, parameters, returns, expenses etc. Members having any query may kindly get in touch directly with the Aditya Birla Team. Their contact details were circulated that day else they can be had from Chandresh Sir. Aditya Birla Team has promised to visit us again in the future.
  3. Elliot Wave – Ravi ji in his superb style & aura described to us the theory. There are 5 up waves and 3 down waves. Waves are created to remove investors in the market. There is a 8 year cycle. The market is all about a few people versus the majority. The new wave inducts new investors and the old ones get removed for various reasons. Members requested Ravi Sir to again take up this topic in the next meeting. He floated his proposal on training with Smart Money Academy and members can directly contact him for details. “Becoming rich by concentration and not diversification”, was a strategy discussed.
  4. Market Update Atul Sir – Due to paucity of time this could not be taken up. Atul Sir will circulate the slides already made and also take up the same in our next meeting.

All presenters are requested to kindly bring their own laptop for the presentation. Any member having a LCD projector is requested to please bring it to meetings for the benefit of all members. This is so, because IIC has started charging separately for their LCD projector.’s use The savings could be of immense benefit to all. The agenda for the next meeting is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update
  2. Ben Graham Chapter 17 Aseem Sir
  3. Atul Batra – Market Update
  4. Ravi ji Elliot wave continued + Birthday Greetings!
  5. Pervez Sir – His rich experience of the Stock Market

The next meeting’s date will be communicated shortly to you.

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August 16’

No minutes

 

September 16’

Dear WCC Members,

I once again welcome all new members to WCC. It was a pleasure seeing you all, a full house and our Varun Sir for this session. I bring to you the highlights:

  1. Atul Batra Market Update – He gave us a detailed update on market movements, current status, etc. Market is slightly on the high side now. Prices could go down and earnings up. He described the support and resistance in Nifty chart. Atul is continuing his SIP and also trading at current PE levels. He explained that financial data reached to the investors late or at the very end when the stock would have moved where it had to.
  2. Varun Sir’ Update – All welcomed him after a long hiatus very graciously. Varun Sir asked us to look at Bank Nifty PE now and 1 year ago. It is 33% down and more realistic than before. He also asked us to check the market capitalisation to GDP ratio, which ideally should be 1. Varun Sir suggested us to move from Jr. Nifty to Nifty and we have the right mix vis a vis Nifty, Infra, Bank, energy. If we are to check the earnings for the last 15 years any market is at its peak when sentiments and earnings are at their top. Right now only sentiments are high and earnings are still below. Varun suggested us to see EPS of companies for this, it should be a rising line. Also using xirr formula in excel, can help us to calculate net worth.
  3. Pervez Sir’s Strategy: On popular demand Pervez ji repeated his session but this time with a power point presentation. He said assets price goes up because of more money in the market. There are always noises about ups or lows. A moving average line depicts the mean of prices over 10 or say 100 days. We need to see the MA line of 50 and 20 days, their cross overs and accordingly make a buy or sell decision. The MA line should be put over a weekly chart. In this manner the investor will have an idea when to sell or buy at a very appropriate time, ie even before the financial data of a company reaches him. Along with MA line Bollinger Bands could be put too. He is happy to share the buy or sell decisions from time to time of all companies that are listed. To invest in Nifty was by far the best option he suggested.

Please note that all views expressed by presenters during any WCC meeting or the WCC WhatsApp group or WCC Google group emails are their personal views only. Members are advised to exercise their own judgement, consultation etc prior to making any investment related decision.

 

The agenda for the next WCC meeting is:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update
  2. Aseem Sir XIRR formula
  3. Atul ji’s Market Update
  4. Peter Lynch’s One Upon Wall Street – Book Review by Ravi, Ashish & Vishwanath.

The next meeting will held on 23rd October 2016 at 5.55 pm in IIC. Please confirm your participation when Aseem ji circulates an email requiring your confirmation to attend the same. It helps us determine an exact no. and suitably give IIC a real minimum guarantee.

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3rd Quarter 2017

October 16’

Dear WCC Members,

I welcome all new members to WCC. It was a pleasure seeing your enthusiasm and camaraderie. I bring to you the highlights:

 

  1. Aseem Sir XIRR formula: Aseem Sir will be circulating the excel sheet on XIRR. Members can calculate return of their various asset classes using XIRR much more realistically.
  2. Ravi Vinayak Ji’s Session: Sir emphasised the need to be financially free early in life. He brought forth very interesting examples from Rich Dad & Poor Dad. The poor work for money and in case of the rich, money works for them. He explained how insurance of assets are far more important than insuring individuals. Also given the fact the latter is more expensive than assets insurance. He dwelled on what is wealth and its measure (time). Wealth was defined as the number of days you can survive without having to earn money. One should try to be financially free by 40 and then pursue what you best like to do. We should strive to create more income generating assets. One has to grow rich by spending our money wisely / smartly. He stressed on one not buying many goods but experiences, buying your time and giving (the act) to others. We wear brands because we do not have an identity of our own. Also the utility of an item vis a vis its cost is an important factor to bear in mind while making a purchase. Time and discipline are far more important than a CAGR. Being consistent matters. We should check what we have been born to do. Always keep the power of compounding in mind and use it effectively.
  3. Shayari by Tariq Amin Sir: A real treat for all members, Amin sahab was at its best.
  4. Peter Lynch’s One Upon Wall Street – Book Review by Ravi, Ashish & Vishwanath. The word document containing important points / topics on the book shall be circulated by Ravi sir.

Please note that all views expressed by presenters during any WCC meeting or the WCC WhatsApp group or WCC Google group emails are their personal views only. Members are advised to exercise their own judgement, consultation etc prior to making any investment related decision. Also on the Google & What’s App group please post investment, finance, stocks related information only.

 

The agenda for the next WCC meeting is:

  1. Manish Jain on Varun Sir’s classes 1-2.
  2. One Upon Wall Street Peter Lynch Chapter 2-3
  3. Atul Batra Market Update
  4. Stock picks Pervez Sir

The next meeting will held on 20th November 2016 at 1.55 pm to 5pm in IIC. Please confirm your participation when Aseem ji circulates an email requiring your confirmation to attend the same. It helps us determine an exact no. and suitably give IIC a real minimum guarantee.

 

Wishing you all a very happy diwali in advance.

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November 16’

Dear WCC Members,

It was a pleasure meeting you all last week. I bring to you the proceedings of the meeting:

  1. General Discussion – There are mixed views on demonetisation. One would have to wait & see the results. All felt it was too early to determine any kind of output. It was mentioned this is the 13th time that the investment indicator had come up. Market is expected to fall till about 7500. Some members submitted that they have restarted their SIP’s. The auto sector is expected to fall and the banking / infra will rise upwards.
  2. Vishwanath’s Book review – One Upon Wall Street- He will share the slides / posts.
  3. Stock picking – Pervez Sir – He showed the charts in ami-broker and explained about the indicators heikenashi and fibonacci in detail.
  4. Bitcoins – Our guest speaker tried to explain bitcoins (digital currency) to the members with little history. However one has to appreciate the blockchains technology behind it. This cutting edge technology is being highly sought after by many industries like say banking. To read about blockchains and its application google search is the best way. Bitcoins is one of the applications only.
  5. Varun Sir – Post our WCC Meeting a few of us went to Sir to get views on demonetisation, markets etc. Demonetisation according to Varun Sir is a very big step by the government. They could have started small also like banning only the 1000 rupee note. The execution as we are seeing is getting problematic. The government could have started cashless transaction education, mobile money, paytm like awareness campaigns using doordarshan, all India radio etc. This way the demonetisation impact on trade could have been lesser for the common man. Now the common man has to get up skilled and change himself to survive. The corporate earnings will come down in the short term and will really bounce back if the execution is good. IT & infra ETF are attractive now. The banks’ collection will get funneled into infra majorly. There is a chance that income tax will be dropped giving the economy a big boost. Also tax simplification is needed.

 

The agenda for the next WCC meeting is:

  1. Varun Sir’s update.
  2. Each One Tells One – sharing of a need be it work / business related.
  3. Bhutani Sir’s investment experience.
  4. One Upon Wall Street Peter Lynch Chapter 4-5.
  5. Stock picking Pervez Sir.

I look forward to seeing you on 18.11.16. at 5.55 pm at IIC. Please confirm your participation when Aseem ji circulates an email requiring your confirmation to attend the  same. It helps us determine an exact no. and suitably give IIC a real minimum guarantee.

——————————————————————————————————————

December 16’

Dear Friends,

I wish you all a very happy, prosperous and healthy new year 2017.

I bring to you the update of our last meeting, which is as follows:

  1. Peter Lynch One Upon the Wall Street by Vishwanath Sir– The full Part 1 i.e. till chapter 5 has been covered and the notes will be circulated by Vishwanath Sir.
  2. Atul Batra’s Market Update– He mentioned markets are likely to dip below 7,900 level, but we are currently in a bullish market. If the markets go below the 7,900 as is being seen (head & shoulder strategy) / predicted we can expect a considerable downslide. Weekly charts he stressed were better over monthly charts as the former have 52 entries vis a vis 12.
  3. Praveen Sharma Sir’s investment experience– Sir started with two invigorating quotes, “invest as much as you can digest and trade as much as you are willing to loose”. Praveen Sir started investing in the 90s’ and initially picked what was suggested like, National Panasonic, Hada Leasing, P&G & HDFC. However after losing big money, he studied deeper and changed his strategy. He suggests to focus on the management of a target company and they should be morally sound. Shares have character just as humans do. A sector should be chosen and one should invest in the no. 1 company. Gut feeling has to start by looking at the charts. If opening price of a stock is lower than its closing of last day (Friday), the chances of getting out of the same are higher for him. Do see the trend lines of the higher & lowest points. Price is key information for buying or selling. One should go for the kill and the win. One should not be afraid of losing. Due to demonetization, stocks such as Asian Paints will be under pressure as people will delay painting their houses. Carpenters will have less work, hence Pidilite’s sales might be affected. Bharti Airtel looks promising as they have made a bank in Rajasthan.
  4. Ravi Vinayak ji’s Experience– As usual Ravi Sir’s message was full of encouragement, extremely knowledgeable, practical and doable. He explained the investing methodology advocated by Robert Kiyosaki along with his own life’s experiences. Notable anecdotes that he shared are, ‘earn enough so your time becomes free’, ‘growth is not the way to financial freedom’. He reiterated how useful www.attainix.comwas for choosing individual stocks. He showed a part of Anthony Robbins video on Financial Freedom. The video stresses on achieving financial independence, financial security and financial freedom. It can be seen by clicking on this link: Ravi Sir shared his secret of creating a money making machine by doing good asset allocation, that asset should be able to generate an income, from that income buy another asset that is income generating and one should keep on doing this again & again. It’s important to keep the sequence in mind and always remember to spend less than one earns. Money that has once entered the assets column, should be kept like that and never do something that makes it land up in the liability column. Investing = Persistency + Consistency

The agenda for the next WCC meeting to be held on the 22nd of January 2017 at 5.55 pm at IIC is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update
  2. Ravi Kapoor ji’s Balance Sheet Study – 30 mins
  3. Praveen Sir’s Technical Study – 30 mins
  4. Harsh Vardhan’s Investing approach – 30 mins
  5. Aseem Sir WCC Accounts – 10 mins
  6. Manish Jain on 1st2 classes of Varun Sir EIFS – 30 mins

I personally look forward to seeing you all for this upcoming meeting. It will give us a chance to study & understand the effects of demonetization, in addition to the enlightening talks by the above speakers.

Wealth Creators Club 2016

July 13, 2017

Wealth Creators Club: 2016 (1st half)

This is an ongoing series of posts starting from Wealth Creators Club (WCC) 2015. The 2016 post gives us all about what happened in our Club that year. In short WCC is a group of about 50 likeminded people who are traders, investors, bankers etc. We meet & discuss once a month about stocks, finance, investing etc. at IIC. In addition we have a very vibrant whatsapp & a google group.

2016 (1st Half)

January 16’

 

Dear Member,

My apologies for this late update. By far the last meeting was one the best in terms of content, delivery and given the fact that Varun Sir was present all throughout the meeting. I hereby bring to you the minutes. All presentations have been circulated by the respective presenters.

 

  1. Varun Sir’s update: Investment in energy, bank & infra is riskier these days and one should do so only when their PE is low and / or we have planned for our retirement by investing in Nifty & JR Nifty. Varun Sir was positive that infra over 5 years & bank over 10 years shall beat Nifty as NPAs’ will get removed / cleared and India is a infra story. But Nifty will return more than banks. We had a good discussion on expense ratios and Varun Sir clarified that on a daily basis deductions are being made on your investments. However the thumb rule is lower the ratio, better / beneficial it is to the investor. On a SIP of Rs.5,000 invested at 17% and 17.3% both in Nifty, will create a difference in returns to the tune of a few crores. Sir stressed if you have Nifty & Jr. Nifty you own 80% of the market. CNX 500 is a good instrument to hold, however its expense ratio (Goldman Sachs) currently is too high.

 

Warren Buffet has a long standing bet of 1 million US$ with the hedge fund managers that S&P 500 will outperform the hedge fund returns. Currently Buffett is way ahead of the hedge returns and seems inclined to win the bet. Mutual Funds were hotly debated and Varun Sir cited the example of Morgan Stanley MF leaving India sometime ago. Always there are 5 large caps in each MF, at times there are pharma, infra, bank loaded on or merged to show good / healthy results. Do not look solely at the returns, look at the fundamentals too. As such selling when a fund is performing poorly and buying when it’s doing good, doesn’t seem a good strategy, Varun Sir commented. Past performance was not relevant nor will it replicate. Anything invested in stocks in 2012 would have doubled by now and that in realty sector halved. Time is in our hands, unlike the hedge fund manager who has to replicate his good performance every quarter!

 

Additionally Sir stressed on the importance of EQ more than IQ. Creating emotional balance, doing meditation, reading Tony Robbins / Shiv Khera etc was needed to increase the motivation. It was important to observe people better than you, than just argue with them or influence them. Reading Warren Buffett’s letters to shareholders was very important for us.

 

  1. Ben Graham’s book review: Chapter 9 Vishwanath, Chapter 10 Aseem: All slides have been shared.
  2. Warren Buffet’s letter to Shareholders 2008 & 2009 by Ravi Vinayak: 2008 letter has been circulated.

 

The agenda for the next WCC meeting that is to be held on the 21st of February 2016 at IIC at 5.55pm is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s update
  2. Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor Chapter 11 & 12 Mandeep
  3. Warren Buffett’s 2009 & 2010 letter Ravi ji
  4. Varun Sir Covered Call Option
  5. Discussion on accounts

Exact venue will be shared by Renu ji in a week’s time. Kindly send your confirmations towards your attendance so necessary arrangements can be made. Please continue your SIP and invest more in the down slide.

Looking forward to seeing you all soon,

 

February 16′

Dear WCC Members,

I can say with confidence that each successive meeting is better than the before. Such candid talks by our members are extremely encouraging & enlightening (personally for me). May we carry on these meetings for the next 10 years and help each other in our unique ways! In my 36 years of existence, I have not come across any platform like our Wealth Creators Club (WCC).

I put before you the update of the last WCC meeting held yesterday:

 

1)    Varun Sir’s update – Due to ill health Varun sir could not come. He later sent me an apology message for all.

2)    Ravi Vinayak ji’s update & experience sharing – We are so very grateful to Ravi ji for sharing his candid ideas, views, practical philosophy on life, investments, expenses, calculations, living and the list is bigger. It’s my failing to not completely record his talk / views!

  1. a)    Ravi ji started with explaining his chart to the members that P/E (Price over Earnings Ratio) 75% of the time is in the 15-21 range in the last 25 years. Only 8% of the time PE has been below 15. Basically for a very short time the market falls at low levels (deep discount period), so seeing the 1st hour and the last hour on a trading day is imperative.
  2. b)    It’s important to know the return on investment (ROI) if P/E say is 21 and 15. One can easily calculate ROI if the given P/E is say 20 (ROI is 5 i.e. 20 x 5 = 100) or if PE 15 ROI is 6.67 (15 x 6.66=100). Hence the question that one needs to answer is, is your money giving a safer return in stock market on PE 20 i.e. ROI 5% versus a ROI of 7.5% in Bank FD? Technically in the later post tax return will be around 5.5 % however its more safer than stock market.
  3. c)    Ravi ji uses a 200 day moving average (MVA) line and a 20 MVA line. When the price is below 20 MVA it is a sure shot entry point for an investor.
  4. d)    Often Ravi ji quoted Robert Kiyosaki:
  5. i)     Do you want material success or freedom? Meaning a job can curtail your freedom but however can earn you millions (material success).
  6. ii)    Be free and retire at 40: just as Ravi ji did when he was assured that his passive income was getting a decent return almost equivalent to his current salary and was able to meet his current expenses. (Personally Ravi ji seems to be a financial monk who sold his Ferrari then, to pursue other financial matters to his interest / liking)

iii)   Buy a BMW from your passive income than from hard earned money or even worse loans.

  1. iv)   ‘Freedom to be, what you are born to be’ Rich Dad Poor Dad.
  2. e)    Ravi ji stressed upon the fact that we should get to know, as to what we like and would want to become. Ask the question to yourself, is earning money the sole criteria?
  3. f)     Members were told about attainix.comand the information it has in it, in arriving at the intrinsic value of a company.

3)    Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor Chapter 11 & 12 – Mandeep ji provided a very comprehensive / detailed chapter reviews and he will circulate his slides / pages.

4)    Ravi Kapoor ji investment experience – Very candidly Ravi ji explained his investment style, modus operandi, experience etc. He stressed on the importance of being in action. Daily trading will not yield much result. Invest big and see the results. We generally invest small and want to see big results! His pick on MF investment is to get into diversified MF funds only. We get into sector specific MFs and expect them to recover / do well in sector specific turmoil’s. His passions are stocks, getting knowledge and wanting to make big money.

5)    Warren Buffett’s 2009 & 2010 letter: Ravi ji extensively explained the letter and will circulate the analysis narrated.

6)    Discussion on accounts – Aseem ji discussed the accounts and presented the analysis. We have money to last for 2 meetings. The house was in favour to collect Rs.1000 from all members from March onwards which would sustain us for the next quarter(s).

 

The agenda for the next WCC meeting that is proposed to be held on the 20th of March 2016 at IIC at 5.55pm is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s update
  2. Balance Sheet Analysis – Ravi Kapoor ji
  3. Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor Chapter 13 Arun Bhutani ji
  4. Warren Buffett’s 2010 or 2015 letter Ravi Vinayak ji
  5. Varun Sir / Loveneet Puri ji Covered Call Option

 

Mrs. Renu Bajaj will confirm the availability of the hall for the 20th of March meeting. I encourage you to increase your participation, get involved in a letter / chapter review, share your investment experience etc. I look forward with keen anticipation towards our next meeting, as we would get to learn many implications of the Budget 2016 on us. This will be a very important meeting from that angle and you could perhaps take a few tips (from the stalwarts) on the last minute saving / investment for the impending financial year end for tax planning purposes.

 

I sincerely look forward to meeting you soon,

 

March 16’

Dear WCC Members,

It was a delight to see a large gathering, a large hall and all the new enthusiastic members. Greater strength brings greater responsibilities for the organisers and we hope to live up to expectations. I hereby bring to you the proceedings for that evening:

 

  1. Varun Sir’s update- It was a real surprise & delight to see Varun Sir present & interacting with members. Having taken out time just before he was to fly out that evening (for a vacation), speaks volumes of Varun Sir’s commitment / affection towards us. Sir explained the difference & advantage of PE of shares & bonds. Bonds come at say 8% interest p.a. and continues to give that return assuming a fixed principal, but PE of shares fluctuates and at times gives investors the choice to enter at lower levels thereby maximising their overall returns. Any FED hike is in our interest only. Till date all the hikes have led the market to higher levels. Dividend yields move in inverse direction to PE ratios as lower the PE increases the quantum of dividend yield due to lower share volumes with same or more dividend levels. In Varun Sir’s opinion the Budget 2016 was good. However the Govt. is unable to control the fiscal deficit. Focus on low income housing is good and Govt. needs to take the developers out of the red zone (NPAs’). But caution should be exercised that it does not become a bubble. Start Up India being promoted in a big way because the Govt. does not have the money. Its better the Govt. opens up, but its more important to have a regulator where required. This is will ensure smoothness of functioning / working. Confidence is the key to success as for example there were 1 lakh accounts in the stock market in 1992 and still there are the same no. However many people have exited and newer ones entered thereby the previous ones have never re-entered! The new mutual funds disclosure norms are a welcome measure / step that will add to the transparency on commissions (normal, trailing etc), salaries of 60 lakhs & above etc.

 

  1. Workings of WCC- I explained to the house, especially for the benefit of the new members about Wealth Creators Club (WCC), its origin, member strength, agenda driven proceedings, key organisers (Mr. Ravi Vinayak – Mentor, Mrs. Renu Bajaj – Booking & Payments and Mr. Aseem Ahuja – Accounts, WhatsApp & Google Group) etc. We are grateful for the support extended by Varun Sir & EIFS on updating us regularly and adding to our strength, respectively. However in addition to Varun Sir’s session (which remains unconfirmed till the very end due to various reasons) we do book reviews, review of letter to shareholders – Warren Buffet, personal investment experience sharing etc. The online & offline platform is meant for only sharing investment, finance, stocks related information for all. Subscription falls due when called for and they typically last for 5-6 months. Any meeting missed is not carried forward to the next and the member’s contribution is considered paid for in advance. We are open for having presentations from fund houses, brokerage firms, banks etc for a fee. For any queries please feel free to write separately to the key organisers or myself.

 

  1. Balance Sheet Analysis Ravi Kapoor ji- Post tea we had a very lively session of Ravi Sir. He stressed on the importance of understanding balance sheets then investing. If a company was having a 20% return on equity compounded year on year, you can easily expect a 20% p.a. increase in share price for that company over a 20 year period. Go and hunt for these companies was Ravi ji’s pick. Thereafter he explained about the course of Mr. Vishal Khandelwal – Safal Niveshak that he is pursuing. Members requiring further details should directly ask Ravi ji. WCC has nothing to do with this. Ravi ji explained that all intelligent investing is value investing, as for example we will not buy MTNL just because the stock is cheap! Graham & Dodd’s group have beaten Dow Jones by atleast 5 – 7% YOY and they are all value investors. He mentioned great luminaries such as Philip Fisher who suggested buying value stocks, Benjamin Graham who suggests buy cheap stocks after due diligence and Howard Mark whose follower is Warren Buffet (WB) himself. Warren Buffet considers himself to be 15% Philip Fisher and 80% Ben Graham! In stock markets commitment is not important, we at times commit ourselves to the wrong decision we’ve made. Its important to look at the misplaced bets and we don’t need to play / invest daily. Ravi ji encouraged all to look at Google Finance which works similar to Screener.in for individual stocks. Cash flow is more important than profits and the former is great for sustenance. He also explained the big bath accounting principal / treatment, which happens when a management likes to completely clean their balance sheets of losses / bad debts in a particular year due to various reasons such as change in CEO, riding with a depressed wave etc. Thereafter the next year you see a sharp rise in the profitability or share price of the company eg. Bank of Baroda. Always have a check list ready before investing just as a pilot has one prior to take off. Rest of the information presented through slides will be shared by Ravi ji in due course.

 

  1. Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor Chapter 13 Arun Bhutani ji- Arun ji chapter review was very amusing and enlightening at the same time. Members enjoyed it immensely. He will share his presentation in due course.

 

  1. Warren Buffett’s 2010 or 2015 letter Ravi Vinayak ji and Loveneet Puri ji Covered Call Option- These agendas could not be taken up and will be scheduled for the next meeting.

The agenda for the next WCC meeting that is to be held on the 17th of April 2016 at IIC at 5.55 pm is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update,
  2. Ravi Vinayak ji 2015 Warren Buffet’s Letter to Shareholders,
  3. Benjamin Graham Chapter 14 Aseem Sir,
  4. Personal Investment Experience Tariq Sir
  5. Market Update Atul Batra ji
  6. Ravi Kapur Ji Balance Sheet Analysis continued,
  7. Lovneet Sir Covered Call Option
  8. Ravi Vinayak ji on proposed investment project

So we again have a packed schedule for the next meeting. I encourage you to come before time so we can start early and finish late! I request the presenters to be crisp & concise in order to cover more and take as many questions from the audience as possible.

 

Sincerely looking forward to meeting you all in April,

 

2nd Quarter 2016

April 16’

Dear All,

It was a pleasure to see an enthusiastic and keen audience (WCC Members) last month. I apologise the delay in presenting before you the proceedings due to my pre-occupation.

1)      Tariq Sir’s Investment Experience – Sir explained his investments in brief, learning from Varun Sir and thereafter the usual implementation. However Tariq Sir’s unique offering to WCC were his couplets (shayari, sher etc). Very eloquently he described life, stocks etc through his numerous sher. I have written a few but would request Tariq Sir only to write & send the same to us. A few wrong punctuation, wrong spelling of urdu words may spoil the shayari.

2)      Personal Investment Experience & Introduction of members –

  1. a)      Suresh Mehra – Director in Telecom Dept., has his investments 50% in FD and 50% in other investments, layman in stock market prior to meeting Varun Sir.
  2. b)      Yatin Ahuja – Own business of garments / tags. Investing since Jan. 2013, ETF is getting no returns, now invests in individual stocks through Kapil Ahuja.
  3. c)      Vikas Jain CA – Has own practice. He started investment with reference from friends, believes in trading. After learning from Varun Sir he put 50% money in NIFTY @6,800. The returns are good, but does not see his portfolio regularly. TV shows affect his decision making and believes that the monsoon will be good / positive this year.
  4. d)      Kapil Ahuja – Explained the tussle between ETF & Individual stocks, how individual stocks work best for him. How ITC stock will not double, as it is not a multi bagger, it has had its run, its business won’t double easily. Kapil stays away from ETF. Members wanted to understand more in detail Kapil’s investment approach, so he kindly consented to discuss the same in the next meeting.
  5. e)      DD Singh – Works for NTPC Govt. of India. He invests his extra money, is not afraid of loosing money in stocks, buys NIFTY with closed eyes, Sensex will rise compulsorily, at times puts SIP.
  6. f)       Post tea it was felt that the remaining introductions and investment experience should be continued in the next meeting.

3)      Ravi Kapur ji’s Investing the Fundamental Way – Sir encouraged all members to check out the website www.stableinvestor.com . He explained in simplistic terms the article on Market Timing and Discipline Investing (http://www.stableinvestor.com/2011/12/timing-markets-or-disciplined-investing.html ). There is only a 6% difference in ROI for a person who times the market and the one who does not. Ravi ji very nicely also touched upon the subject investing and speculation. A person who analyses balance sheets, looks at moats, fundamentals & technicals’ is an investor. But a person who is solely focused on price is a speculator.

4)      Videos – During the tea break and at the end of the session we saw 2 videos, whose links are:

  1. a)     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQhn9gUoxus
  2. b)    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M9yf8PNdF8

5)      2015 Letter to Shareholders Berkshire Hathway – I (Avikshit Saras) discussed this letter and read out the main / key take away points from the letter. The letter is attached for your perusal.

The next WCC Meeting will be held on the 22nd of May 2016 at 5.55PM in IIC Seminar Hall. The agenda is as follows:

1)      Varun Sir’s Update (confirmed)

2)      Kapil Ahuja’s multibaggers

3)      Aseem Sir’s Chapter 14 Benjamin Graham

4)      Remaining Introductions & Investment Experience Sharing

5)      Atul Batra’s Market Update

6)      Future Fuel of Automobiles Dhiraj Sonkar

I wish you all, all the best for this meeting. I am off for a vacation next week so won’t be able to attend. But, would look forward to receiving the minutes and being remotely part of the action.

 

May 16’

No Minutes

 

June 16’

Dear Members,

Due to my absence in the May meeting, it was nice to see you all in June. Given the fact that many would have been travelling due to the summer vacations the turnout was low. I hereby bring to you the proceedings:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update – Sir mentioned that Raghu Ram Rajan’s exit as RBI Governor will not have much effect on the stock market. He appreciated the good work that the RBI Governor has undertaken in his term. Modi Govt.’s inflation related approach that putting the RBI Governor responsible for controlling inflation and if inflation came down to 2% or went up to 6% it is Governor who’ll be responsible, has added to a lot of stability in the economy. Varun Sir said, the current SEBI Chairman will make a good RBI Governor. Varun Sir criticised the 3 yrs. late provisioning norms by banks as not so good. The earlier the better so they can come clean. Mutual Funds exposure to banks should come down. Real valuation will be when earnings will be high right now only sentiments are high. Varun Sir said the Brexit impact will be on EU majorly. India will not be affected much. EU may put sanctions on UK and ensure that others don’t exit. Right now no euphoria, when it comes it will be witnessed on the streets. The last fall i.e. from 9000 to 6900, we have all sustained it. But the real test will be when the market falls 10% in a single day. 
  2. Ben Graham – Ch. 15 Vishwanath ji explained the same in detail and will share the slides.
  3. Mutual Funds Investing – Mahesh ji – Mahesh Sir showed that ETF gave lower returns than small & mid caps. He showed how we should effectively use moneycontrol.comto choose mutual funds. Mahesh Sir showed that MFs’ have performed better than CNX 500, 200, 100 etc. His approach was to see the rank of MFs’ choose the highest return earners, invest in them and thereafter quarterly monitor them. He advised never to invest in just 1 fund but spread out the investment in multiple funds and schemes such as 30% in large caps, 30% in diversified equity and 40% in small & mid caps. One should leave / exit the fund after 1 year or 6 months of poor performance but check the exit load prior to exit. The session was appreciated by all.
  4. Market linked Debentures – Avikshit – Slides attached

There is some amazing information that speakers and members bring to WCC. But as a group we would like to point out that at times speakers express their own opinions or generally what the market says or feels or mentioned in a book, article, net etc. Members or beneficiaries of this information should rely on their own judgement, choice, other advice etc before investing or making any investment related decision.

 

The next WCC meeting is on the 24th of July 2016 at 5.55 pm at IIC. The agenda is as follows:

  1. Aditya Birla MF sponsored talk
  2. Varun Sir’s Update.
  3. 16 Ben Graham by Mr. Nimai Vijay.
  4. Elliot Wave – Ravi ji next month
  5. Market Update Atul Sir

I personally request all members to kindly be present for this very important meeting. This is the 1st time we are having a sponsored talk by a fund house. I shall keep you posted on the exact agenda and sequence of events for that day. When Aseem Sir circulates the attendance confirmation mail, please revert quickly about your decision so arrangements can be done efficiently.

 

Some members have expressed their desire that we should hold the session on the last Sunday of the month. We can discuss the same but please be informed that advance bookings have been made till September and it may be hard to change, non availability of hall etc. In October IIC is completely booked, so please suggest alternate venues so we can look into them.

See you soon & happy investing…

See you soon and happy investing.

Wealth Creators Club: 2015

July 12, 2017

Wealth Creators Club

Since January 2015 I have been associated with wonderful & likeminded bunch of people, who are investors, bankers, traders etc. We started meeting once a month at the India Habitat Centre and discuss all things related to investing, finance, stock markets etc. Once a while our Guru Mr. Varun Malhotra visits us to give updates on the markets but above all see if we are on track! Quite a few of us did Mr. Malhotra’s full course on finance & investing. Happily, in the end of every meeting I prepare minutes or updates for all members of our club. So our cub is formally known as the Wealth Creators Club (WCC). As a permanent record, I am putting all the minutes in the form of a blog here for all to see, read, & learn. The posts will be divided 6th monthly basis running from Jan to Jun. thereafter Jul. – Dec. i.e. 1 post will comprise of 6 months of updates & so on. Posts will appear in the form of a letter / script and each post will be demarcated by a line in the end. Enjoy the 1st post and leave your comments / suggestions.

Knowledge increases by spreading it.

2015 (2nd Half)

July 15’

Dear Friends,

It was a pleasure seeing few WCC members at our monthly meeting yesterday. I briefly sum up the discussions of the evening:

Agenda:

  1. Market Scenario:

Varun Sir due to his son’s birthday could not come for the meeting. I had asked Rahul Saini to come, but he couldn’t make it either. Attending members apprised each other of the latest developments such as new draft code for curtailing RBI Governor’s (individual) powers, stock downside post reduction of interest rates, what to buy etc.

  1. Experience Sharing Leg: Compounding through Mutual Funds by Mahesh and Ramya.

I am sure by now, through the WhatsApp group messages you are aware what a stupendous presentation Mahesh Sir and Ramya gave last evening. They covered all portions thoroughly and exhaustively. Their presentation has been already circulated in the group. Their style & content is like a benchmark for us now to follow in future presentations!

  1. Fundamental/Technical Leg: CNX 100 Stock Picking:

Aseem and Dhiraj gave us a few valuable insights on fundamentals before stock picking. Unfortunately we ran out of time and decided to take up the topic afresh in the next meeting, in order to better understand the subject in one go.

  1. Fun Leg: Twesha and Team.

Twesha & Anish created a very innovative quiz on Bollywood celebrities which was thoroughly enjoyed by the attending members.

Other matters:

It was felt that 6-9 pm is too long a time and there is no other slot available at IIC. So henceforth tea will be served in between i.e. around 7 – 7.30 pm. Renu ji will find out the cost of pakoras & sandwiches from IIC and if everyone approves we can have a light snack during tea time.

Agenda for 30th August Meeting:

 

  1. Market Scenario: Varun Sir (I’ve already sounded him)

 

  1. Fundamental/Technical Leg: CNX 100 Stock Picking : Aseem and Dhiraj to continue.

 

  1. Ravi Vinayak ji’s session (if he is back)

 

  1. Slot is open for any member (other than the above presenters) to present, please send information in advance

 

  1. Fun Leg: Twesha and Anish.

 

Like always, exact venue in IIC will be shared in the week preceding the meeting by Renu ji.

 

I wish for you all great success, may it rain dividends & growths on all your equity investments.

 

Cheers,

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August 15’

Dear WCC Members,

My apologies for this late update for all those who couldn’t attend the last meeting. The agenda was as follows:

  1. Market Scenario : Varun Sir presented the market update and assured us of the current stock market levels were just a correction. There is nothing to worry and we should continue our SIP, maintain 50% cash and 50% amount invested. India’s fundamentals are strong and this correction had got the political class in action to fast track economic reforms such as GST etc. As per dow theory 8,000 recent significant bottom, interest rates are going to come down

 

  1. Fundamental/Technical Leg : CNX 100 Stock Picking : Aseem Ahooja and Dhiraj Sonkar explained through power point practical & simple ways of stock picking. They mentioned that moneycontrol.comand screener are reliable sites for financial data. Aim is to buy companies whose current value is lower than their intrinsic value. The slides have already been circulated.

 

  1. How Stock Markets work : Ravi Vinayak gave us a very insightful presentation and understanding of the stock market. It was a real eye opener, for many including myself. Try to think and behave like smart money. Volumes are a more important yardstick for seeing a stock’s performance, movements.

 

  1. Aseem discussed about the financials of WCC and has circulated an email too in the group.

 

  1. The group had tea along with biscuits & sandwiches on a trial basis. Feasibility for next time too will be studied by Renu ji.

 

  1. Agenda for the next WCC meeting to be held on 27.9.2015 at IIC:

 

  1. Varun Sir – Market Scenario (have already informed him, can someone follow him up?)
  2. Multibaggers – Kapil.
  3. Intrinsic Value – Dhiraj Sonkar.
  4. Avikshit & Ravi – Book Review : Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor.
  5. Spirituality talk – Ashir.

We all look forward to seeing each other soon.

Good luck and do your best,

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September 15’

Dear WCC Members,
It was great meeting a few members at WCC meeting yesterday. The agenda and debriefing is as follows:

  1. Kapil Multi bagger – Kapil gave a very detailed, interactive and in depth presentation on how to choose multi baggers. The presentation was highly practical, full of examples and offered solutions to all queries of members. The ppt. slides shall be posted on the google groups email.
  2. Varun Sir – Gave us an indepth detail of the current state of the economy, political misgivings, addressing class lectures with current affairs etc. He advocated Raghuram Rajan’s stable growth approach. 40% growth in the next 3 – 4 years was very heartening to hear from Varun Sir. He suggested auto & tourism as growth sectors. There was a possibility of PE coming down to 17. He advocated the need to invest 50% and keep 50% cash so you could enter at 17 PE. Sir emphasised the need to be patient for 4-5 years and one could make enough money in just 1 year only, this is a trend and it repeats.
  3. All the other sessions were to be taken up in the next meeting as per the agenda below.
  4. It was unanimously agreed to continue the meetings. It was urged that members kindly inform Renu ji in advance about their attending a meeting, so accordingly F&B arrangements can be made. Yesterday we had given a MG for 35 and less than 25 members came. Almost all members present yesterday paid for the next round of meetings. Members who are interested to continue are requested to please send in their contributions at the earliest.
  5. A short motivational video was shown to the present members – The Last Lecture Randy Pausch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BODHsU3hDo4

The next meeting will be held on the 25th October 2015 at 5.55 pm at IIC, exact venue will be communicated by Renu ji. The agenda is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir – Update
  2. Intelligent Investor’s Book Review – Kapil, Ravi, Vishwanath & Avikshit. 1.5 hrs.
  3. Intrinsic Value – Dhiraj Sonkar.
  4. Sharing of investing experience by any member
  5. Spirituality talk – Ashir. 15 mins

Looking forward to seeing you share & grow,

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October 15’

Dear WCC Members,

By far one of the best meetings that we’ve had, albeit we did miss Varun Sir this time. I bring to you update of our meeting:

  1. Ravi ji shared his experience of the stock market. He showed his personal chart that showed 15 years up & down cycles of the stock market. With the market being down most of the time (10 months at least) giving ample opportunity to invest for people. Conversely the market staying up for at least 4 months, again giving sufficient opportunity for people to exit. He stressed on the importance of PE and expressed his thankfulness to Varun Sir for explaining the PE concept so wonderfully. Next crash is expected in 2016 – 17 given the fact that last one happened in 2008. I request Ravi ji to share his slides / excel sheet that are in public domain.
  2. Ben Graham book review for chapters Introduction, 1,2,3 & 4 were done. I request the presenters to kindly share their slides through a separate mail to members.
  3. Kapil shared his trading / investing experience. He emphasised on looking at micro sectors such as agro, cables, sanitary, rice etc. He mentioned loads of companies to look at, which are good investment targets. He explained how he shied away from large market cap companies. To quote Kapil, “see all negatives of a stock, accumulate these negatives and then see if you are comfortable with them”. Such a practical approach, that surely has applications in other spheres of life too.
  4. Aseem presented to the members the funds collected so far. Currently we have 24 members as against 48 that signed up 6 months back. All members present strongly felt we should continue with our monthly meetings. It was proposed that each current member should enroll 1 new member so our member strength goes up to the same level as before. We could look for alternate meeting venues, wherein our meeting expenses could be curtailed. Members who’ve not paid are requested to do so maximum by the next meeting. Else it was agreed that thereafter they would be removed from the mailing list and WhatsApp group of WCC.

Next meeting will be held on 29th November 2015 at 5.55 pm at IIC. Exact venue shall be confirmed by Renu Madam. The agenda will be as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update
  2. Ben Graham Book Review continued: Chapter – 5 by Aseem, Chapter – 6 by Ashish and Chapter – 7 by Mandeep,
  3. Sharing of Investment Experience by Tariq ji,
  4. Decision on new year gift for Varun Sir,
  5. Video Clip if time permits

Do please write in or let me know if I have missed anything with regards to the update or next meeting’s agenda.

I personally take this opportunity of wishing you all a very happy and prosperous diwali in advance. Looking forward to meeting you all soon,

 

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November 15’

Dear All,

We had a great meeting a fortnight ago. This late update has been on account of my traveling. Please take note that our next WCC meeting will be held on the coming Sunday ie the 20th of December 2015 at 5.55 pm at IIC. Exact venue shall be confirmed by Renu Madam.

The proceedings of the last meeting are as follows:

  1. Varun Sir was busy. We discussed what New Year Gift should be given to him. Mandeep shall arrange a new book on investing / finance and another gift after consulting Renu Madam on the funds.
  2. Ben Graham Book Review for Chapters – 5, 6 & 7 were undertaken by Aseem, Ashish and Mandeep. Everybody appreciated the reviews and were very well received. Aseem’s introduction on XIRR, a really practical formula for most of us was explained in detail & discussed. Aseem explained his personal investment style of identifying a target company and thereafter investing in it over 9 months. All presentations have been mailed and we look forward to the next set of chapters review.
  3. Ashir’s explanation on spirituality, meditation, personal experiences, books to be read etc was liked by all. He has shared the slides of his presentation.
  4. It was discussed that we should talk to EIFS for allowing us to attend the last class of their batches so we can initiate more members into our WCC group. For this it was suggested if 2-3 people could volunteer. New members brought in by Renu Madam were introduced and welcomed. I request each one to add one, member each so as to bolster our group strength. Let’s request the 24 people from the original 48 to re-join or at least let us know, why they’ve quit!
  5. Due to non availability of last Sundays’ in Feb. – Mar. 2016, it was felt that for some time we could keep (starting this month) the meeting day as second last Sunday of each month.

The agenda for the next meeting is as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update – His confirmation is awaited.
  2. Ben Graham’s Chapters review – Chapter 8 Ashish, Chapter – 9 Vishwanath, Chapter – 10 Aseem & Chapter 11 Mandeep
  3. Warren Buffet’s letters – Ashish
  4. Motivation session – open

I look forward to meeting you next Sunday,

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December 15’

Dear Members,

It was a pleasure meeting you and especially the new members. We had a good turn out despite the cold, members stayed on till late, past the meeting time outside IIC and discussing among themselves.

The proceedings for the last meeting are as follows:

  1. Varun Sir’s Update – All were happy to see Varun Sir after a long hiatus. We thanked him & his team for helping us increase our members. Sir mentioned about the overall negativity in the market. The government is revising the growth rate to 7%. Pressure / pessimism in the government is good as it puts pressure on it to perform & achieve targets. He mentioned that there was good news from US who’ve decided to increase the interest rates and stated that 2008 problems have been solved. Credit growth he said is going to come first from highway companies, second railways and then defense sector. NPA declaration / booking by banks will cause losses. Best to clean up losses, restart on a clean slate such as Unitech, DLF etc. Instead of bullet trains or smart cities project, the Government should focus on making roads. More airports alongside roads network can speed up travel & economic growth. Defense sector opening and more localised production can save billions of dollars for us and create growth. Before any crisis there will be a bull run in equity, realty etc. The mid caps / small caps will not out perform the market for very long. All should look at earnings and not price. Earnings grow when government spends, promotes projects, misses fiscal deficit targets to promote growth, etc. Continue SIP in equity, start debt SIP so money can be put in at 10-12 PE. Post GST there will be high inflation for 2-3 years and thereafter phenomenal growth. Congress will supposedly get GST passed in 2017, boot BJP out of power in 2019 due to high inflation and then enjoy the benefits of GST when it comes to power in 2019. 
  2. Warren Buffet’s letter – Ashish very eloquently described the 2015 letter of Buffet to shareholders. He will share the slides separately.
  3. Ben Graham’s Chapter 8 review- Ashish again described the Chapter 8 in detail and will share his slides.
  4. From now on, we will be meeting on the 2nd last Sunday of each month.

The agenda for the next meeting that is to be held on the 24th of January 2015 at IIC at 5.55pm is as follows:

 

  1. Varun Sir’s update
  2. Ben Graham’s book review: Chapter 9 Vishwanath, Chapter 10 Aseem, Chapter 11 Mandeep.
  3. Warren Buffet’s letter to Shareholders 2008 & 2009 by Ravi Vinayak.
  4. Covered Call option: Loveneet Puri

Together I believe we’ve had an awesome year 2015 in terms of learning about the stock market. In addition we’ve learnt a wealth of financial knowledge from Varun Sir and created this amazing group called WCC. So in essence the learning continues, I sincerely wish we learn more and keep meeting month after month to enlighten us, sharpen us, make ourselves wealthy and give ourselves what we truly deserve.

Wishing you and your families a very happy new year 2016. I look forward to meeting you all on 24th Jan same time & same place. Do encourage others also to join in please.

3D Entrepreneurship

October 24, 2016

3D Entrepreneurship comes from the realm of 3D printing or 3D prototyping, a 20th century technology having far reaching applications in the 21st Century. The World Economic Forum calls it one of the pillars of the 4th Industrial Revolution. 3D Printing was invented by Chuck Hull of 3D Systems in the 1980s’ in the US and patented then. Now the patents have expired and we see a lot of wide spread usage and advancement in this technology.

We at ‘I Print My Things’ are resellers of 3D printers and are into 3D education. Our target audience are primarily schools & colleges, as we want our teachers & students to learn this technology so it can be widely used in India. Our customer include the IITs, regional / private engineering colleges, private schools etc. Now we come to the essential question, what is 3D printing? 3D Printing is  a group of techniques used to quickly fabricate a scale model of a physical part or assembly, using 3 dimensional cad data. It is also called additive manufacturing or rapid prototyping.

Learning 3D printing, students & teachers alike get up skilled, in terms of doing faster a prototyping job vis a vis the conventional methods of doing prototyping using wood, card board, metal etc. The results are far superior and precise. So over all 3D printing adds value to their learning and resumes. But the most important aspect here is to understand that 3D printing also enables these very students & teachers alike to take up a second vocation, that is of 3D entrepreneurship. In their spare time students & teachers can undertake design work for anyone globally and if they possess a 3D printer they can execute the 3D orders with finesse. Thereby adding to their incomes and experience. The internet is abound with free lancing websites, where globally designers pitch for 3D jobs & orders. Similarly there are websites where 3D jobbers pitch for their services to clients.

In addition to this, enterprising students can offer full time 3D job work services to customers akin to the photocopy services or STD / ISD services that got created or proliferated in India in 1990s’. Every locality of even a Tier 2 or Tier 3 town has a photocopy or STD / ISD service offering. Similar will be the case of 3D printing job work services too. 3D printing in that parlance is all about localised and customised manufacturing too. The days of mass manufacturing will dwindle with the onset of 3D printing as humans want more personalised and differentiated product offerings. At the macro level we would see that the need for logistics & finished inventory storage would be reduced, thereby leading to reduced costs of products for consumers.

So with 1 arrow i.e. 3D printing & its education, we are creating value added for students / teachers, creating 3D entrepreneurs and reducing prices of certain goods used in our lives. This subject is closest to my heart and I have been really fervent about it to make it possible from day one, that I started my 3D printing venture.

Avikshit Saras

3D Entrepreneur

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